LOCKED IN DAY 37 REAL FINAL DAY FULL SLATE
Hey guys! This will be the real final day for the reddit post picks as due to technical difficulties we will have to postpone the discord for 1 more day so we sincerely apologise for that inconvenience. To compensate, we are giving today's full picks free here on reddit for one more final day . We will have an announcement when it comes out on reddit and instagram!
Today's picks were slightly more difficult and not all games were included as many had little value due to trades, and injuries and uncommon matchups etc. Thunders however is the most confident pick today, read the analysis and you will be convinced. The line will probably drop even further so get in early on -10.5 for best odds currently.
*** are most confident
Remember to unit size properly. 1 unit = 1 x your set amount stake. If your bank roll is $100, your 1 unit size should be around $5.
Top single straights
- Thunders -10.5 (3U)
- Max strus over over 8.5 points (2U)
- Cade cunningham under 43.5 PRA (1U)
- Jamal murray over 10.5 rebounds +Assists (1U)
- Nuggets -8.5 (1U)
- Walker Kessler over 11.5 rebounds (1U)
- Brandon podziemski over 17.5 PRA (1U)
Top parlay 1 (-110) (2U)
- Thunders -10.5
- Shai 1+ threes
Top parlay 2 (+107) (2U)
- Tyrese maxey 25+ points
- Walker kessler 10+ rebounds
- Nuggets -2.5
Top parlay 3 (riskier) (+278) (0.5U)
- Thunders -6.5
- Jamal murray over 9.5 rebounds+ assists
- Dennis schroder 1+ threes
- Max strus 8+ points
Top parlay leg options
- Thunders -4.5
- Thunder 1st quarter -1.5 handicap
- Shai 1+ threes
- Tyrese maxey 25+ points
- Nuggets -2.5
- Jamal murray over 8.5 rebounds +assists
- Nikola jokic 8+ assists
- Nikola jokic 1+ threes
- Trey murphy 2+ threes
- Walker kessler 10+ rebounds
- Dennis schroder 1+ threes
- Isaiah collier 8+ points
- Jamal murray 15+ points
- Donovan mitchell 4+ assists
- Bam abedayo 8+ rebounds
- Christian braun 4+ rebounds
Thunders vs Suns
Game quality: Very good
Risks: Blowout potential in player props
Thunders injuries: Jalen Williams IN, Chet Holmgren OUT, Cason Wallace OUT,
Suns injuries: Kevin Durant OUT, Josh Okogie OUT
One H2H game to analyse. Thunders won by 16 points playing without Jaylin Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein; these players are key players that have a significant impact, e.g. Thunders average point differential jumps from 7.3 to 16.4 in their last 10 games. Thunders were playing without Durant, Beal, and Grayson Allen. Today’s matchup is also missing Kevin Durant, where the Suns have a record of 1-9 in their last 10 games without Kevin Durant. The Thunders have historically dominated this matchup since the start of 2023. Their last matchup was a home game for the Thunders, which is also the same for today. Thunders are 9-1 in their last 10 games at home whilst Suns have a record of 5-5; it’s worth noting that Suns have a record of 6-4 at home in their last 10, indicating that they perform better while at home. Thunders also average 112.58 points per home game against the Suns, while the Suns average 108.4 points away. The Suns also average 110.8 points per game without Kevin Durant in their last 10 games. Travel fatigue will also play a major factor here as this matchup is the Suns’ 4th game on the road. Thunders are coming off a back-to-back home wins, scoring 125 against the Bucks and 144 against the Kings. Thunders hold the best defensive stats in the league currently, allowing only 104.4 points per game and opposes shooting at 42.9%. They are ranked 8th in the league for offense, averaging 116.4 points per game with Shai leading with 32.5 points per game; even better with 36.1 points per game in his last 10 games. The Suns on the other hand, have struggled recently, losing three of their last four games, including back-to-back on the road losses against Portland. Suns are definitely extremely fatigued from these 2 losses as they both had OT, and the last game having double OT. Suns are ranked 14th in PPG and 18th in points allowed per game. Given the Thunder’s recent form and strong performances, combined with Suns’ struggles and injury issues, this game holds a blowout potential. As the trade deadline approaches, the tension within the Suns organization may intensify, influenced by Durant's rumored trade talks. Both on and off the court, the psychological effects of being in this situation could affect not just Durant but the entire team, potentially leading to even greater struggles for the Suns. Player props here won't be very good due to so many factors influencing the suns and the blowout potential. This will also be a nationally televised game,
Straights
- Thunders -10.5 *** (Very good)
- Thunders 1st quarter -2.5 ***
Leg potentials
- Thunders -4.5***
- Shai 25+ points
- Shai 1+ threes***
- Tyus jones 1+ threes
Cavs vs Pistons
Cavs injuries – Dean wade OUT, Isaac okoro OUT, Donovan Mitchell GTD
Pistons injuries – Jaden Ivey OUT
The cavs have never lost to the pistons since the 2023 season. It has always been a 8+ point differential win at least. There is two recent H2H games this season. The first one was a cavs 113-101 win over the pistons. It was the start of the season and the cavs had a fully healthy lineup except for max strus who was out. The pistons had a fully healthy lineup too. The next H2H was played very recently at cavs home. The cavs win 110-91 over the pistons. This time, the pistons were missing jaden ivey who was out for a while now and cavs were missing isaac okoro, dean wade, caris levert. Despite this, the cavs win by 19 points. The cavs will be playing at pistons home this time. The cavs will be on a B2B while the pistons have been at home for 3 games now. The cavs still play quite well despite B2B games. Both teams have been performing quite well recently and pistons have seen a lot of improvement in recent games, allowing them to climb to the 6th rank in the league. However cavs, even in B2B games, do perform very well, and are just the better team overall. Currently the odds are very good for cavs, and the line is at -4.5 despite a history of wins and being a much better team in general. Cavs should be able to cover the spread at -2.5.
Straights
- Cavs -2.5 (if Donovan Mitchell plays)
- Max strus over over 8.5 points***
- Max strus 4+ rebounds
- Cade cunningham under 43.5 PRA***
Legs
- Donovan mitchell 4+ assists
Heat vs 76ers
Game quality: Okay
Risks: B2B fatigue
Heat injuries – Duncan robinson GTD, Haywood highsmith GTD, Dru smith OUT
76ers injuries – Joel and jared OUT, Paul George GTD, caleb martin OUT, andre drummond OUT
One recent H2H played on November 19. The heat win 106-89 played at heat home. The 76ers had a fully healthy lineup here except tyrese maxey was out. The heat had jimmy butler here while missing terry roizer. They will be playing at 76ers home today so 76ers will have that home court advantage. Both teams are also coming off a B2B today and both teams haven’t been significantly disadvantaged from B2B games. The quality and confirmations for this matchup is low so there won’t be a bet for the win. It is very difficult to determine a winner here.
Legs
- Tyrese maxey over 26.5 points***
- Bam abedayo 8+ rebounds
Grizzlies vs raptors
Game quality: Okay
Risks: Grizzlies are sometimes inconsistent
Grizzlies injuries – Desmond bane OUT, ja morant IN
Raptors injuries – RJ barrett OUT, Immanuel quickley OUT, Jakob Poeltl OUT
The most recent H2H was played in December this season at grizzlies home. Grizzlies won 155-126. The raptors were missing Jakob and Immanuel while the grizzlies had a fully healthy lineup. This time they will be playing at raptors home. The grizzlies will be missing desmond bane today however they have shown good results even without desmond bane playing. Ja morant, who is one of their best players will be back in today. The raptors will be missing many starters such as RJ, Immanuel, Jakob. The raptors are 2-7 without rj barrett this season and no wins with all those injuries combined. The raptors are also coming off a B2B, in which they are 1-5 in B2Bs this season, but have won no B2B without RJ barrett. Grizzlies have been performing quite well recently, winning against bucks, spurs, rockets. Raptors have been improving and trying however in today’s circumstances they seem to stand no chance. Currently, grizzlies -8.5 is favoured.
Straights
- Grizzlies -8.5
Nuggets vs pelicans
Game quality: Good
Risks: None, nuggets should win again
Nuggets injuries – Russell westbrook OUT, Aaron Gordon GTD, Peyton Watson OUT
Pelicans injuries – Dejounte murray OUT, Herbert jones OUT
3 H2H matches played this season. First one played in November, at pelicans home. Nuggets were missing nikola jokic, their best player and aaron Gordon, pelicans were missing CJ and Dejounte murray, Zion Williamson and had brandon ingram in, which is a significantly better injury list than nuggets, as nikola jokic is one of the most difference making teammates in the league. Nuggets also were playing away in which they are significantly more disadvantaged compared to home and yet they only lose by 7 points. The next H2H was played in December at pelicans home once again. This time, nikola jokic was playing and nuggets had a fully healthy lineup. Pelicans on the other hand were missing zion Williamson. Pelicans were at a disadvantage here however, nuggets do play worse in the away position. Nuggets win by 3 points here. The most recent H2H, played a couple days ago was at Denver home, nuggets win 125-113, while missing aaron Gordon and Russell westbrook. Pelicans were missing Dejounte murray, Herbert jones. This time they will both be playing with the same injuries in this rematch, at Denver arena again. Denver arena is one of the toughest arenas for players to play at, and away teams often struggle here due to the high altitude and low oxygen levels. Nuggets are 8-2 playing home in the last 10 games while pelicans are 1-4. Zion Williamson is still on a minutes restriction due to injury. Pelicans and nuggets seem to not change in performance when vsing the same team in a short time frame. I expect the nuggets to be able to win this again easily. Currently the spread is at -10.5, and I am quite confident that nuggets will be able to win cover a spread of 8.5.
Straight
- Nuggets -8.5***
- Jamal murray over 10.5 rebounds +Assists***
Legs
- Nikola jokic 1+ threes***
- Nikola jokic 8+ assists***
- Jamal murray 15+ points
- Trey murphy 2+ threes***
- Jamal murray over 8.5 rebounds +assists***
- Christian braun 4+ rebounds***
Warriors vs Jazz
Game quality: Okay
Risks: Both teams are inconsistent, a lot of injuries
Warriors injuries – Andrew wiggins GTD, Jonathan kuminga OUT, Deanthony OUT, Draymond green GTD, Moses Moody GTD
Jazz injuries – Collin sexton OUT, Lauri Markkanen GTD
There are 2 significant H2H games today. One at the start of the season, warriors win 127-86 against the jazz in a blowout win played at jazz home. Both teams had fully healthy lineups. The next H2H was played quite recently at gsw home where gsw win again but this time it was 114-03. Jazz was missing john collins, walker Kessler and Jordan Clarkson while warriors were missing Stephen curry, Johnathan kuminga and Draymond green. The injuries favour the warriors to win if everyone was healthy again as the warriors injuries were far more detrimental to the warriors than the jazz were to the jazz and yet they still won. Today they will be playing at jazz home again. On the injury side of things, the warriors should still win this despite missing Jonathan kuminga, as they were able to last time without him and even steph curry. The jazz will also be missing a key offensive player collin sexton this time. In theory the warriors should win this again as they have better injury report this time. The pick will be warriors -4.5.
Straights
- Warriors -4.5
- Walker Kessler over 11.5 rebounds***
- Brandon podziemski over 17.5 PRA***
legs
- Isaiah collier 8+ points***
- Isaiah collier 6+ assists***
- Dennis schroder 1+ threes***
- Walker Kessler 10+ rebounds***
Thanks again for your patience. and stay tuned for the discord announcement for tomorrow!